Data from ARTSA-i’s latest market report suggests there is either a new baseline or temporary pause in new heavy vehicle registrations.
Data from ARTSA-i’s Q1 2026 heavy vehicle market report shows the cooling trend observed through 2025 is continuing this year – with new registrations for heavy trailers, prime movers and rigid all below their Q1 2025 result.
A total of 7,988 new vehicles were registered in Q1 2026, representing a 9.3 per cent decline on Q1 2025 and 22.9 per cent below the Q1 2024 peak.
The Q1 2026 result has effectively returned to levels seen in 2021-2022, suggesting the market is consolidating after an exceptional growth cycle.
Compared with the first quarter of 2025, prime mover registrations fell by 13.1 per cent to 1,440 units.
Heavy trailers were down by 5.7 per cent to 2,975 units, while rigids (heavy and medium) were down by 10.6 per cent to 3,573 units.
Head of ARTSA-i Data Analytics, Anthony Germanchev, said the key question for the remainder of 2026 is whether this moderation represents a new baseline or a temporary pause.
“The first quarter of the calendar year is traditionally a slower period for new heavy vehicle registrations, with subsequent quarters typically outperforming,” he said.
“However, attention will be firmly on Q2, particularly given the potential impacts of emerging fuel supply issues.
“The performance of the next two quarters, particularly in the context of emerging fuel supply pressures, [is] likely to determine whether demand stabilises or recovers.”
The Q1 2026 data confirms the market has moved beyond the peak conditions of 2023-2024, with registrations easing further across prime movers, heavy trailers and rigids.
Following steady growth from 2020 to a peak in 2023 and sustained high levels in 2024, Germanchev said the Q1 2026 result places the market back within the range observed in 2021-2022 – indicating a return to more typical activity, rather than a sharp downturn.
Heavy trailers continue to dominate and drive the overall trend, with volumes easing from recent highs but remaining above pre-2021 levels.
Prime movers and heavy rigids show a similar pullback, reflecting reduced fleet expansion.
Medium rigids remain stable, while heavy buses continue a gradual recovery from a low base.
“Overall, the market is transitioning from an exceptional growth phase to a more sustainable level, with the next two quarters critical in determining whether this stabilisation holds or demand rebounds,” Germanchev reiterated.
A deeper look at heavy trailer registrations shows that the softening in Q1 2026 is being driven primarily by a pullback in semi-trailers.
New semi-trailer registrations were down by 5.1 per cent compared with Q1 2025.
They are now 28.2 per cent below the 2024 peak, highlighting the extent of the reset from recent highs.
According to ARTSA-i, this trend is broadly consistent across most trailer types.
Lead trailers were down 12.5 per cent, dollies 7.3 per cent and pig trailers 23.5 per cent from Q1 2025.
“It is worth noting that pig trailers represent the smallest segment by volume, meaning that while the percentage drop is significant, its overall impact on total trailer registrations is relatively limited,” Germanchev noted.
Dog trailers were the only major category to record growth, increasing by 6.4 per cent to 298 units.
In other news, the Australian Livestock and Rural Transporters Association has called out the Federal Government’s fuel relief measures.
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